My Research Statement can be found here.  

Publications

11. Borrowing from China and Sovereign Credit Risk

with Illenin Kondo and Astghik Mkhitaryan
AEA P&P, Forthcoming in May 2024. PDF

10. On Wars, Sanctions, and Sovereign Default

with Javier Bianchi
Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 141, January 2024.   PDF   Journal link   Slides   Twitter thread   Mpls Fed Interview

9. Reserve Accumulation, Macroeconomic Stabilization, and Sovereign Risk

with Javier Bianchi
Review of Economic Studies, Forthcoming. PDF   Journal link   Slides   Twitter thread

8. The Macroeconomic Consequences of International Financial Sanctions

with Javier Bianchi
AEA P&P, 113:29–32, May 2023. PDF

7. Does It Matter How Central Banks Accumulate Reserves? Evidence from Sovereign Spreads

with Federico Sturzenegger
Journal of International Economics, Volume 140, January 2023.
PDF   NBER WP version   Slides   Code repository

6. Interest Rate Uncertainty and Sovereign Default Risk

with Alok Johri and Shahed K. Khan
Journal of International Economics, Volume 139, November 2022.
PDF (w/ Appendix)   JIE version   Journal link   Code repository

5. Trade Liberalization and Firm Productivity: Estimation Methods Matter

with John Kealy and Pau S. Pujolàs
Economic Inquiry, Volume 57(3), July 2019, pages 1272-1283.
PDF   Online appendix   Journal link   BibTex

4. Sovereign Defaults and Banking Crises

Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 99, November 2018, pages 88-105.
PDF   Online appendix   Journal link   BibTex

3. Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk

with Juan Carlos Hatchondo and Leonardo Martinez
Journal of Political Economy, Volume 124, October 2016, pages 1383-1422.
PDF   Older WP version   Journal link   BibTex

2. Voluntary Sovereign Debt Exchanges

with Juan Carlos Hatchondo and Leonardo Martinez
Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 61, January 2014, pages 32-50.
PDF   Journal link   BibTex

1. Firms’ Financing, Contract Enforcement and Liability Dollarization

Journal of Centrum Cathedra, Vol. 3, No. 1. March 2010. Lead Article. Link

Working Papers

• Hidden Debt Revelations

  with Sebastian Horn, David Mihalyi, and Philipp Nickol. [March ‘24 pdf]   [Slides]

• International Reserve Management under Rollover Crises

  with Mauricio Barbosa-Alves and Javier Bianchi.   [April ‘24 pdf]   [Slides]

• International Sanctions and Dollar Dominance

  with Javier Bianchi. Revise and Resubmit at The Economic Journal   [June ‘23 pdf]  

• Sovereign Spreads and the Political Leaning of Nations

  with Johnny Cotoc and Alok Johri. Conditionally Accepted at the International Economic Review.   [November ‘23 pdf]   [Featured in the NBER Digest]

• Sovereign Debt Standstills

  with Juan Carlos Hatchondo and Leonardo Martinez. Revise and Resubmit at JPE Macro.   [July ‘22 pdf]   [NBER WP version]   [Slides]

• Optimal Bailouts in Banking and Sovereign Crises

  with Sewon Hur and Zeynep Yom. Submitted.   [February ‘24 pdf]   [NBER WP version]   [Slides]   [Sewon’s Dallas Fed Blogpost]

• Borrowing in the Shadow of China

  with Illenin Kondo, Astghik Mkhitaryan and Zach Swaziek.   [September ‘22 pdf]   New draft coming soon.

• Central Bank Swap Lines as Bilateral Sovereign Debt

  with Francisco Roldan. [Slides] Early draft available upon request.

Policy Papers

• Fiscal rules: Coping with Revenue Volatility in Lesotho and Swaziland
  with J.Honda, F. Im, N. Koliadina, M. Morgan, M. Nose and J. Torres. IMF African Department WP.  [link]

Work in Progress

• The Political Economy of Macroprudential Policies and Capital Flows (with Javier Bianchi and Carlos Bolivar) In progress.

• A Simple Model of Geoeconomic Fragmentation (with Javier Bianchi) In progress.

• Equilibrium Repression (with Zach Stangebye)

• A Quantitative Analysis of ESBies (with Juan Carlos Hatchondo and Leonardo Martinez)   [Extended abstract]