My Research Statement can be found here.  

Publications

12. Sovereign Spreads and the Political Leaning of Nations

with Johnny Cotoc and Alok Johri
International Economic Review, Accepted, August 2024. PDF   Featured in the NBER Digest

11. Reserve Accumulation, Macroeconomic Stabilization, and Sovereign Risk

with Javier Bianchi
Review of Economic Studies, Volume 91, Issue 4, July 2024, pages 2053–2103.
PDF  WP Version   Journal link   Slides   Twitter thread

10. Borrowing from China and Sovereign Credit Risk

with Illenin Kondo and Astghik Mkhitaryan
AEA P&P, 114:148-152, May 2024. PDF

9. On Wars, Sanctions, and Sovereign Default

with Javier Bianchi
Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 141, January 2024.   PDF   Journal link   Slides   Twitter thread   Mpls Fed Interview

8. The Macroeconomic Consequences of International Financial Sanctions

with Javier Bianchi
AEA P&P, 113:29–32, May 2023. PDF

7. Does It Matter How Central Banks Accumulate Reserves? Evidence from Sovereign Spreads

with Federico Sturzenegger
Journal of International Economics, Volume 140, January 2023.
PDF   NBER WP version   Slides   Code repository

6. Interest Rate Uncertainty and Sovereign Default Risk

with Alok Johri and Shahed K. Khan
Journal of International Economics, Volume 139, November 2022.
PDF (w/ Appendix)   JIE version   Journal link   Code repository

5. Trade Liberalization and Firm Productivity: Estimation Methods Matter

with John Kealy and Pau S. Pujolàs
Economic Inquiry, Volume 57(3), July 2019, pages 1272-1283.
PDF   Online appendix   Journal link   BibTex

4. Sovereign Defaults and Banking Crises

Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 99, November 2018, pages 88-105.
PDF   Online appendix   Journal link   BibTex

3. Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk

with Juan Carlos Hatchondo and Leonardo Martinez
Journal of Political Economy, Volume 124, October 2016, pages 1383-1422.
PDF   Older WP version   Journal link   BibTex

2. Voluntary Sovereign Debt Exchanges

with Juan Carlos Hatchondo and Leonardo Martinez
Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 61, January 2014, pages 32-50.
PDF   Journal link   BibTex

1. Firms’ Financing, Contract Enforcement and Liability Dollarization

Journal of Centrum Cathedra, Vol. 3, No. 1. March 2010. Lead Article. Link

Working Papers

• International Reserve Management under Rollover Crises

  with Mauricio Barbosa-Alves and Javier Bianchi. Revise and Resubmit at the Quarterly Journal of Economics   [May ‘24 pdf]   [Slides]

• Hidden Debt Revelations

  with Sebastian Horn, David Mihalyi, and Philipp Nickol. Reject and Resubmit at the Quarterly Journal of Economics   [August ‘24 pdf]   [NBER WP version]   [Slides]   Media coverage: The Economist (link, PDF).

• Sovereign Debt Standstills

  with Juan Carlos Hatchondo and Leonardo Martinez. 2nd Round Revise and Resubmit to JPE Macro.   [May ‘24 pdf]   [NBER WP version]   [Slides]

• International Sanctions and Dollar Dominance

  with Javier Bianchi. Revise and Resubmit at The Economic Journal   [June ‘23 pdf]  

• Optimal Bailouts in Banking and Sovereign Crises

  with Sewon Hur and Zeynep Yom. Revise and Resubmit at Journal of International Economics.   [February ‘24 pdf]   [NBER WP version]   [Slides]   [Sewon’s Dallas Fed Blogpost]

• Borrowing in the Shadow of China

  with Illenin Kondo, Astghik Mkhitaryan and Zach Swaziek.   [September ‘22 pdf]   New draft coming soon.

• The Political Economy of Macroprudential Policies and Capital Flows

  with Javier Bianchi and Carlos Bolivar.   [Preliminary draft]

• Central Bank Swap Lines as Bilateral Sovereign Debt

  with Francisco Roldan. [Slides] Early draft available upon request.

• A Model of Geoeconomic Fragmentation

  with Javier Bianchi.   [Preliminary draft]

Policy Papers

• Fiscal rules: Coping with Revenue Volatility in Lesotho and Swaziland
  with J.Honda, F. Im, N. Koliadina, M. Morgan, M. Nose and J. Torres. IMF African Department WP.  [link]

Work in Progress

• Non-Homothetic Debt Intolerance (with Eugenio Rojas and Felipe Saffie)

• Equilibrium Repression (with Zach Stangebye)

• A Quantitative Analysis of ESBies (with Juan Carlos Hatchondo and Leonardo Martinez)   [Extended abstract]

(Selected) Discussions

• World Financial Cycles (by Y. Bai, P. Kehoe, P. Lopez and F. Perri) Women in Macroeconomics Conference (May 2024, UChicago–BFI) [Slides]  

• Capital Flow Management Measures and Dollarization (by E. Andreasen and V. Nuguer) ND-ITAM PODER Conference (August 2023) [Slides]  

• Preemptive Austerity with Rollover Risk (by J.C. Conesa and T. Kehoe) JIE-Mpls Fed Conference (November 2022) [Slides]  

• Reserve Accumulation, Growth and Financial Crises (by G. Benigno, L. Fornaro and M. Wolf) JIE-IADB-Central Bank of Chile Conference on Financial Frictions (May 2021) [Slides]  

• Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets (by C. Arellano, Y. Bai and G. Mihalache) Sovereign Debt Virtual Workshop (August 2020, FRB Richmond) [Slides]  

• Greed vs. Fear: Optimal Time-Consistent Taxation with Default (by A. Karantounias) Joint Central Bankers’ Conference (October 2019) [Slides]  

• Optimal Domestic (and External) Sovereign Default (by P. D’Erasmo and E. Mendoza) Atlanta Workshop on International Economics (December 2017) [Slides]