Research

[BibTex]

My Research Statement (from 2023) can be found here.  

Publications

14. Sovereign Debt Standstills

with Juan Carlos Hatchondo and Leonardo Martinez
JPE Macroeconomics, Accepted, January 2026.
November ’25 pdf   NBER WP version   Slides

13. International Sanctions and Dollar Dominance

with Javier Bianchi
The Economic Journal, Volume 135, Issue 672, November 2025, pages 2567–2577.
PDF   Journal Link

12. Sovereign Spreads and the Political Leaning of Nations

with Johnny Cotoc and Alok Johri
International Economic Review, Volume 66, Issue 2, May 2025, pages 687-709.
PDF   Journal Link   Featured in the NBER Digest   Replication

11. Reserve Accumulation, Macroeconomic Stabilization, and Sovereign Risk

with Javier Bianchi
Review of Economic Studies, Volume 91, Issue 4, July 2024, pages 2053–2103.
PDF  WP Version   Journal link   Slides   Twitter thread   Replication

10. Borrowing from China and Sovereign Credit Risk

with Illenin Kondo and Astghik Mkhitaryan
AEA P&P, 114:148-152, May 2024. PDF   Journal link

9. On Wars, Sanctions, and Sovereign Default

with Javier Bianchi
Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 141, January 2024.   PDF   Journal link   Slides   Twitter thread   Mpls Fed Interview

8. The Macroeconomic Consequences of International Financial Sanctions

with Javier Bianchi
AEA P&P, 113:29–32, May 2023. PDF   Journal link

7. Does It Matter How Central Banks Accumulate Reserves? Evidence from Sovereign Spreads

with Federico Sturzenegger
Journal of International Economics, Volume 140, January 2023.
PDF   Journal link   NBER WP version   Slides   Replication

6. Interest Rate Uncertainty and Sovereign Default Risk

with Alok Johri and Shahed K. Khan
Journal of International Economics, Volume 139, November 2022.
PDF (w/ Appendix)   JIE version   Journal link   Replication

5. Trade Liberalization and Firm Productivity: Estimation Methods Matter

with John Kealy and Pau S. Pujolàs
Economic Inquiry, Volume 57(3), July 2019, pages 1272-1283.
PDF   Online appendix   Journal link   BibTex

4. Sovereign Defaults and Banking Crises

Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 99, November 2018, pages 88-105.
PDF   Online appendix   Journal link   BibTex

3. Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk

with Juan Carlos Hatchondo and Leonardo Martinez
Journal of Political Economy, Volume 124, October 2016, pages 1383-1422.
PDF   Older WP version   Journal link   BibTex

2. Voluntary Sovereign Debt Exchanges

with Juan Carlos Hatchondo and Leonardo Martinez
Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 61, January 2014, pages 32-50.
PDF   Journal link   BibTex

1. Firms’ Financing, Contract Enforcement and Liability Dollarization

Journal of Centrum Cathedra, Vol. 3, No. 1. March 2010. Lead Article. Link

 

Working Papers

• International Reserve Management under Rollover Crises

  with Mauricio Barbosa-Alves and Javier Bianchi. Revised and Resubmitted at the Quarterly Journal of Economics   [February ’26 pdf]   [Slides]

• Hidden Debt Revelations

  with Sebastian Horn, David Mihalyi, and Philipp Nickol. Reject and Resubmit at the Quarterly Journal of Economics   [August ’24 pdf]   [NBER WP version]   [Slides]  

  Media coverage: The Economist (link, PDF), Planet Money (link), Nada es Gratis (link), Newswise (link)

  UNU WIDER Background Note: DOI

• Optimal Bailouts in Banking and Sovereign Crises

  with Sewon Hur and Zeynep Yom. Minor Revisions Requested at Journal of International Economics.   [August ’25 pdf]   [NBER WP version]   [Slides]   [Sewon’s Dallas Fed Blogpost]

• The Perils of Bilateral Sovereign Debt

  with Francisco Roldán. [March ’26 pdf]   [IMF WP]   [Slides]

• Borrowing in the Shadow of China

  with Illenin Kondo and Zach Swaziek.   [February ’26 pdf]   [(Older) Slides]

• The Political Economy of Credit Booms and Macroprudential Regulation

  with Javier Bianchi and Carlos Bolivar.   [Preliminary draft – February ’26]   [Slides]

• Financial Cooperation in a Fragmented World

  with Javier Bianchi, Sebastian Horn and Giovanni Rosso.   [March ’26 pdf] [Slides]

 

Policy Papers

• Fiscal rules: Coping with Revenue Volatility in Lesotho and Swaziland
  with J.Honda, F. Im, N. Koliadina, M. Morgan, M. Nose and J. Torres. IMF African Department WP.  [link]

 

Work in Progress

• Non-Homothetic Debt Intolerance (with Caio Dantas, Eugenio Rojas and Felipe Saffie)

• Equilibrium Repression (with Zach Stangebye)

 

(Selected) Discussions

• “A Theory of International Official Lending” (by Liu, Liu, and Yue) NBER IFM Fall Meeting (October 2025) [Slides]  

• Connected for Better or Worse? The Role of Production Networks in Financial Crises (by Miranda-Pinto, Rojas,Saffie, and Silva) NBERSI IFM (July 2025) [Slides]  

• Power and Resilience: An Economic Approach to National Security Policy (by O. Kooi) JHU Geoeconomics Conference (May 2025) [Slides]  

• World Financial Cycles (by Y. Bai, P. Kehoe, P. Lopez and F. Perri) Women in Macroeconomics Conference (May 2024, UChicago–BFI) [Slides]  

• Capital Flow Management Measures and Dollarization (by E. Andreasen and V. Nuguer) ND-ITAM PODER Conference (August 2023) [Slides]  

• Preemptive Austerity with Rollover Risk (by J.C. Conesa and T. Kehoe) JIE-Mpls Fed Conference (November 2022) [Slides]  

• Reserve Accumulation, Growth and Financial Crises (by G. Benigno, L. Fornaro and M. Wolf) JIE-IADB-Central Bank of Chile Conference on Financial Frictions (May 2021) [Slides]  

• Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets (by C. Arellano, Y. Bai and G. Mihalache) Sovereign Debt Virtual Workshop (August 2020, FRB Richmond) [Slides]  

• Greed vs. Fear: Optimal Time-Consistent Taxation with Default (by A. Karantounias) Joint Central Bankers’ Conference (October 2019) [Slides]  

• Optimal Domestic (and External) Sovereign Default (by P. D’Erasmo and E. Mendoza) Atlanta Workshop on International Economics (December 2017) [Slides]